Industry news and views from Panacea and our partners.
Investment Commentary_
Invesco Perpetual: US Market: 7 year itch?
Simon Laing, Head of US Equity, remarks upon the new monotony of a slow and steady recovery in the US. But also questions whether there is a cause for concern; is the US on the brink of a recession or just fatigue?
M&G Investments: The Irish economy: a Bond Vigilantes quick video update
Last weekend we were at the brilliant Kilkenomics festival in Kilkenny, Ireland. Whilst we were there (and its a fantastic town) we filmed this short video.
BNY Mellon: Factoring in US growth expectations
In the US, economic growth rebounded in the third quarter however the sources of this growth appear transitory. GDP grew at 2.9% annualized in the third quarter of 2016, following sub-2% growth the three previous quarters. Weakness in inventory accumulation and export growth had been a major drag on growth before the third quarter. A jump in both series this quarter may reflect a rebalancing effect rather than a sustainable change in GDP trend growth. Nevertheless, we revised up our US GDP forecast over the next year to 1.9% from 1.7% which is below many commercial forecasters. We currently assign a probability of about 61% of below 2% growth, a 39% probability of 2-4% growth and essentially zero weight on above 4% growth.
Architas: Japanese GDP surprises on the upside
Japanese Q3 GDP was released this morning, coming in at 2.2% annualised and much stronger than analysts forecasts of 0.8% as exporters were able to overcome the effects of the strengthening yen. While initial GDP releases are typically subject to revisions, this stronger growth confirms what weve been hearing anecdotally from managers and their company meetings that the picture in Japan is improving. This reduces the pressure on the Bank of Japan to increase monetary easing.
M&G Optimal Income Fund Update
In the latest M&G Optimal Income Fund update video, Stefan Isaacs, Fund Manager, discusses the funds defensive position and what has been driving performance recently. He also gives his outlook for fixed income and which asset classes hes seeing most value in.
M&G Flexible global bond investing the benefits
Fixed income investors are only too aware of the difficulties they face in finding returns that only 15 years ago would have seemed moderate. In an era of negative government bond yields, stubbornly low inflation and high asset prices, investors need to work harder to find yield. However, opportunities do exist for investors able to adopt a flexible, benchmark-unconstrained approach to investing.
Architas: Measured Trump calms markets
Donald Trumps victory speech has so far struck the right chord with markets. You could see US futures improving as he delivered his speech talking about the need to unify America and extract the potential from across all sections of society."
BlackRock: Impact of 2016 US election on investing
The 2016 US election is unusually consequential. The underlying dynamics are driven by widening income inequality, and a growing perception that the benefits of trade and globalisation have accrued to few. We examine the political landscape and policy proposals from each candidate, and what it could mean for investing.
BlackRock: Is now the promising time for Sterling Corporate Bonds?
Sterling's corporate bond performance has defied expectations with yields falling further, supported by a weakening outlook for global economic activity, Brexit, and the BoE's rate cut and further monetary stimulus. We see macro and political factors continuing to support yields.
BNY Mellon: Global EM: The emerging markets most vulnerable to a Trump victory
There is downside risk to all markets in the event of a Donald Trump victory, including emerging markets.
Fidelity: How fragile is the Brexit rally?
The strong performance from UK equities following the outcome of Junes EU referendum has generally confounded market commentators.
M&G: UK Property Market Outlook
On 4 November, the temporary suspension of the M&G Property Portfolio and M&G Feeder of Property Portfolio (the fund or funds) which has been in place since 4 July was lifted. Read more about the M&G Property Portfolio and our outlook on the UK Property Market.
BlackRock: U.S. stocks: stalled on the runway
The S&P 500 has been in a holding pattern since the June Brexit vote, trading within a narrow band. Will U.S. earnings reports be the catalyst to trigger an upward breakout in the months ahead? We dont think so.
Fidelity Perspectives: The week ahead, Marmite tantrum
THE WEEK AHEAD Anna Stupnytska, Global Economist at Fidelity International, highlights what she will be focusing on this week:
Aberdeen Asset Management: Back to the playground
Financial markets have been described as casinos, rollercoasters and merry-go-rounds. Recently, though, theyve been more of a seesaw. The playground favourite was much in evidence this week. As the pound peaked on Wednesday, the FTSE 100 cratered before they then swapped direction, with the FTSE rising as sterling fell back.
Plain English Finance: Are we heading for a massive crash?
There has been an increasing amount written in the press of late about a seemingly inevitable massive crash in markets.
Fidelity: A new income landscape. Where is the yield?
There are a myriad of threats facing income investors; lower for longer rates, political volatility, rising inflation and potential taper tantrums to name a few.
Blackrock: Investors shrug off September volatility spike
Volatility may have spiked across markets in September, but the temporary turbulence did not appear to deter investors from taking on risk over the course of the month.
Aberdeen latest: Diversification in a post Brexit world
Welcome to the first of our monthly round-up emails where we share with you the latest views from our in-house economists and fund management teams. Our top pick this month comes from fund manager Mike Brooks who discusses the need for diversification in a post-Brexit world.
Fidelity Perspectives: Three things to watch in EM
As sentiment towards emerging market improves, strong passive flows have resulted in some of the poorest quality stocks delivering high returns because they are large constituents of the index. Nick Price, portfolio manager of the Fidelity Emerging Markets Fund, does not believe in buying index names unless there is a solid investment thesis for the business. He highlights stocks in three areas of the market that he believes are well placed to benefit structurally from the improved outlook for emerging markets.
BNY Mellon: Contending with political uncertainty
It is surprising how well markets fared after the shock UK referendum result. Clearly, the exit of the UK from the EU is going to be a protracted process and the economic consequences will only become apparent with time. For now, it is viewed as a UK-specific economic issue, with some European ramifications, rather than a global concern.
Aberdeen Asset Management: The best of times and the worst of times
It was a week of contrasts. Sterling fell to its lowest level against the dollar since the mid-1980s, and its lowest against the euro in five years. But it was also a week in which UK stock market indices roared ahead, breaching the psychologically important 7000 barrier.
Fidelity's Anna Stupnytska: German inflation accelerates further, Spain out of deflation
Anna Stupnytska, Global Economist at Fidelity International, comments on inflation figures in Europe
Fidelity: What happens when the crowd gets dumber?
We are increasingly living in an era of industrialised capital allocation. Tracker funds and ETFs are seen as a more convenient and lower risk way of achieving average returns.
Financials set to benefit from Bank of Japan action - Architas tips GLG Japan Core Alpha
Financials set to benefit from Bank of Japan action Sheldon MacDonald, deputy CIO, Architas: While the Bank of Japan recognises the need for policy action to address the economys difficulties, its incremental approach is unlikely to snap the country out of its economic doldrums. The inflation target remains a challenge, despite the tight labour market and rising wages, as consumers continue to show a reluctance to spend. Reversing years of deflationary expectations will not happen overnight.
Prudential: Why are investment bonds still relevant for your clients' needs?
When it comes to investment bonds, it could be said that they dont always instantly come top of mind as an option for your client to invest in. However, we believe their use and flexibility still continue to play an important role in financial planning and their tax benefits should not be quickly dismissed.
Emerging Markets: new directions
Selectivity is a key theme dictating emerging market investing today. While the underlying investment story of rising middle classes and supportive demographics remains intact, emerging markets are entering the next chapter of their development - albeit not all at the same time or speed.
M&G Discovering GEMS in emerging markets
Contrary to popular belief, economic growth does not deliver stockmarket success. Companies are what really matter.
Fidelity Perspectives: The week ahead, volatility returns and political risks
Weekly news and views from Fidelity Internationals investment team.
Architas: Further blow to US economy non-manufacturing index drops
In figures out today the US non-manufacturing index dropped to 51.4 in August, from 55.5 in July, below market expectations and the lowest level since February 2010.
M&G Equities Market Perspectives
In this months update, Investment Director Ritu Vohora reviews the impact of equity market movements in August, along with the sector performance and styles. The theme this month looks at the upcoming US presidential election in November and the potential repercussions it could have on equity markets.
M&Gs Episode blog: Its all gone quiet: does this mean we are due a crash?
By Stuart Canning: In the world of finance, the insatiable demand for content means that even when not much is happening, it becomes a topic of conversation
Aberdeen Asset Management: Week in review: taxing times
It's been another interesting week with Apple the latest multinational company to be accused of tax dodging. European inflation failed to accelerate in August, adding to concerns about the economic outlook ahead of the European Central Bank meeting next week.
Schroders: Seven-year asset class forecast returns: 2016 update
Our seven-year returns forecast largely builds on the same methodology that has been applied in previous years, as explained in the appendix to this document; and has been updated in line with current market conditions and changes to the forecasts provided by the Global Economics team.
Invesco: Brexit? Why we see opportunity in UK smaller companies
Find out more how UK smaller companies have an excellent long-term track record in this environment of political uncertainty that Brexit has driven. Portfolio managers, Jonathon Brown and Robin West discuss how UK smaller companies have outperformed their large-cap counterparts, numerous international rivals and non-equity investments over the past decade.
Aviva Investors: Investors should confront the dark side of tech
Technology firms are often favoured by ESG funds because of their ostensibly clean, asset-light business models. But investors need to look deeper and challenge unethical and unsustainable practices across the industry, argue Louise Piffaut and Charles Devereux.