26th September 2023

T. Rowe Price: The Fairy Tale of a Soft Landing

Early in 2023, the consensus view was that a global recession was coming later in 2023. But as the year has matured, the consensus outlook has completely shifted. A soft landing—or even no landing—is now the consensus. What is remarkable is how strong the consensus has become. The consensus is, indeed, so consensus!

I think differently. A soft landing is merely a convenient and comfortable fairy tale, backfitted to match the market prevailing narrative and based on backward-looking unique circumstances. A hard landing is coming—it’s just a matter of when.

Investments, Investment Commentary

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