25th April 2023

Quilter Cheviot: Taking Stock - Pivot Party

The UK’s headline interest rate is 4.25%. The annual return that you get from lending money to the government for two years, as I write this, sits at 3.75%.

It is a similar story in the States, where the Fed funds rate sits at 4.75%-5.00% relative to a two-year Treasury yield of 4.25%.

This difference is due to the bond market telling you that interest rates are likely to fall relatively soon.

We’ve discussed the reasons for this a few times in the past. A recession is very likely to be the cost of getting inflation numbers down from what are, by any reasonable metric, unacceptable levels.

Investments, Investment Commentary

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