7th March 2016
BNY Mellon: Fixed Income: which way next?
Despite ongoing volatility, global monetary policy divergence and market uncertainty, many investment managers continue to see strong potential and strategic value in fixed income over the year ahead. Download the full report.
After months of speculation on when the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would raise interest rates, the end of 2015 at last saw a modest, if decisive shift. In December the Fed raised rates by 0.25 percentage points – its first increase since 20061 – setting rates on what many predict will be an upward trend with potentially unpredictable outcomes.
While initial market reaction to the change was muted, policymakers and investors must now confront the likelihood of further rises in US rates, while other countries and regions continue on a more accommodative policy path. Central bank divergence and a range of other influencing factors will be key to where to find value in fixed income through 2016, according to managers from across BNY Mellon.
Slowing economic momentum in major developing markets such as China and Brazil is of significant concern, with combined outflows from emerging market (EM) debt and equities by foreign investors amounting to US$46bn in the second half of 2015 – according to estimates from the Institute of International Finance.
Despite this somewhat unsettled environment, the global debt market and fixed income investment sectors continue to register healthy growth. Current market uncertainty has also broadened the appeal of flexible fixed income mandates which can adapt to suit changing conditions.
Against this backdrop, BNY Mellon investment boutiques including Standish, Newton, Alcentra, Insight Investment and Mellon Capital, outline the prospects facing the fixed income market in the year ahead, assessing what investors might expect and where the current opportunities lie.
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